If ORL visited DET today, our model would lean Detroit Pistons with a 80.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +2.3 points for DET at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-0.2

Net Rating

2.1

108.9

Offensive Rating

114.6

109.1

Defensive Rating

112.5

96.5

Pace

100.3

ORL (Away) DET (Home)

Recent Form

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

DET 67-29 L1 Avg margin last 5: -6.0

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

Head-to-Head History

DET wins

ORL wins

2026-05-03 ORL 94 @ DET 116 DET W

2026-05-01 ORL 93 @ DET 79 ORL W

2026-04-29 ORL 109 @ DET 116 DET W

2026-04-27 ORL 88 @ DET 94 DET W

2026-04-25 ORL 105 @ DET 113 DET W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 80.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score