If ORL visited CHI today, our model would lean Orlando Magic with a 73.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -1.4 points for CHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-0.2

Net Rating

-1.6

108.9

Offensive Rating

113.2

109.1

Defensive Rating

114.8

96.5

Pace

103.6

ORL (Away) CHI (Home)

Recent Form

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

Head-to-Head History

CHI wins

ORL wins

2026-04-10 ORL 127 @ CHI 103 ORL W

2026-01-02 ORL 114 @ CHI 121 CHI W

2025-12-01 ORL 120 @ CHI 125 CHI W

2025-10-25 ORL 110 @ CHI 98 ORL W

2025-03-06 ORL 125 @ CHI 123 ORL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 73.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score