If ORL visited CHA today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -8.9 points for CHA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-0.2

Net Rating

-9.1

108.9

Offensive Rating

106.7

109.1

Defensive Rating

115.7

96.5

Pace

98.2

ORL (Away) CHA (Home)

Recent Form

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

Head-to-Head History

CHA wins

ORL wins

2026-03-19 ORL 111 @ CHA 130 CHA W

2026-01-22 ORL 124 @ CHA 97 ORL W

2025-12-26 ORL 120 @ CHA 105 ORL W

2025-10-30 ORL 123 @ CHA 107 ORL W

2025-03-25 ORL 111 @ CHA 104 ORL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score