If ORL visited BOS today, our model would lean Boston Celtics with a 63.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +9.6 points for BOS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-0.2

Net Rating

9.4

108.9

Offensive Rating

119.5

109.1

Defensive Rating

110.1

96.5

Pace

96.6

ORL (Away) BOS (Home)

Recent Form

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

BOS 59-30 L3 Avg margin last 5: +0.4

L PHI

W PHI

Head-to-Head History

BOS wins

ORL wins

2026-04-12 ORL 108 @ BOS 113 BOS W

2025-11-23 ORL 129 @ BOS 138 BOS W

2025-11-09 ORL 111 @ BOS 107 ORL W

2025-11-07 ORL 110 @ BOS 123 BOS W

2025-04-29 ORL 89 @ BOS 120 BOS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score