If NOP visited WAS today, our model would lean New Orleans Pelicans with a 73.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -2.8 points for WAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.4

Net Rating

-12.2

109.7

Offensive Rating

105.8

119.1

Defensive Rating

118.0

99.8

Pace

101.8

NOP (Away) WAS (Home)

Recent Form

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

Head-to-Head History

WAS wins

NOP wins

2026-03-08 NOP 118 @ WAS 138 WAS W

2026-01-09 NOP 128 @ WAS 107 NOP W

2025-01-05 NOP 110 @ WAS 98 NOP W

2025-01-03 NOP 120 @ WAS 132 WAS W

2024-02-14 NOP 126 @ WAS 133 WAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 73.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score