If NOP visited TOR today, our model would lean Toronto Raptors with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +5.3 points for TOR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.4

Net Rating

-4.1

109.7

Offensive Rating

109.6

119.1

Defensive Rating

113.6

99.8

Pace

100.6

NOP (Away) TOR (Home)

Recent Form

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

Head-to-Head History

TOR wins

NOP wins

2026-03-27 NOP 106 @ TOR 119 TOR W

2026-03-11 NOP 111 @ TOR 122 TOR W

2025-01-27 NOP 104 @ TOR 113 TOR W

2024-11-27 NOP 119 @ TOR 93 NOP W

2024-03-05 NOP 139 @ TOR 98 NOP W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score