If NOP visited SAC today, our model would lean New Orleans Pelicans with a 56.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +10.0 points for SAC at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.4

Net Rating

0.6

109.7

Offensive Rating

115.9

119.1

Defensive Rating

115.3

99.8

Pace

98.9

NOP (Away) SAC (Home)

Recent Form

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

SAC 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.2

L POR

W GSW

L GSW

L LAC

W NOP

Head-to-Head History

SAC wins

NOP wins

2026-04-03 NOP 113 @ SAC 117 SAC W

2026-03-05 NOP 133 @ SAC 123 NOP W

2026-02-09 NOP 94 @ SAC 120 SAC W

2025-02-13 NOP 133 @ SAC 140 SAC W

2025-02-12 NOP 119 @ SAC 111 NOP W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 56.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score