If NOP visited POR today, our model would lean Portland Trail Blazers with a 63.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +6.7 points for POR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.4

Net Rating

-2.7

109.7

Offensive Rating

111.0

119.1

Defensive Rating

113.7

99.8

Pace

99.5

NOP (Away) POR (Home)

Recent Form

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

POR wins

NOP wins

2026-04-02 NOP 106 @ POR 118 POR W

2026-01-02 NOP 122 @ POR 109 NOP W

2025-12-11 NOP 120 @ POR 143 POR W

2025-11-12 NOP 125 @ POR 117 NOP W

2025-01-08 NOP 119 @ POR 100 NOP W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score