If NOP visited ORL today, our model would lean Orlando Magic with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +9.2 points for ORL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.4

Net Rating

-0.2

109.7

Offensive Rating

108.9

119.1

Defensive Rating

109.1

99.8

Pace

96.5

NOP (Away) ORL (Home)

Recent Form

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

Head-to-Head History

ORL wins

NOP wins

2026-04-05 NOP 112 @ ORL 108 NOP W

2026-01-11 NOP 118 @ ORL 128 ORL W

2025-03-13 NOP 113 @ ORL 93 NOP W

2024-11-08 NOP 88 @ ORL 115 ORL W

2024-04-03 NOP 117 @ ORL 108 NOP W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score