If NOP visited MIN today, our model would lean Minnesota Timberwolves with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +14.4 points for MIN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.4

Net Rating

5.0

109.7

Offensive Rating

115.7

119.1

Defensive Rating

110.8

99.8

Pace

98.0

NOP (Away) MIN (Home)

Recent Form

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

MIN 55-39 L2 Avg margin last 5: -19.8

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

MIN wins

NOP wins

2026-04-12 NOP 126 @ MIN 132 MIN W

2026-02-06 NOP 119 @ MIN 115 NOP W

2025-12-04 NOP 125 @ MIN 116 NOP W

2025-12-02 NOP 149 @ MIN 142 NOP W

2025-03-21 NOP 93 @ MIN 134 MIN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score