If NOP visited MEM today, our model would lean New Orleans Pelicans with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +14.1 points for MEM at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.4

Net Rating

4.7

109.7

Offensive Rating

117.2

119.1

Defensive Rating

112.6

99.8

Pace

103.7

NOP (Away) MEM (Home)

Recent Form

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

MEM 25-57 L8 Avg margin last 5: -25.2

L HOU

L UTA

L DEN

L CLE

L MIL

Head-to-Head History

MEM wins

NOP wins

2026-01-30 NOP 106 @ MEM 114 MEM W

2026-01-23 NOP 133 @ MEM 127 NOP W

2025-11-26 NOP 133 @ MEM 128 NOP W

2025-10-22 NOP 122 @ MEM 128 MEM W

2025-03-09 NOP 107 @ MEM 104 NOP W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score