If NOP visited LAL today, our model would lean Los Angeles Lakers with a 80.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +10.6 points for LAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.4

Net Rating

1.2

109.7

Offensive Rating

115.0

119.1

Defensive Rating

113.8

99.8

Pace

98.3

NOP (Away) LAL (Home)

Recent Form

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

LAL 57-35 L4 Avg margin last 5: -8.8

L OKC

W HOU

Head-to-Head History

LAL wins

NOP wins

2026-03-03 NOP 101 @ LAL 110 LAL W

2026-01-06 NOP 111 @ LAL 103 NOP W

2025-11-30 NOP 121 @ LAL 133 LAL W

2025-11-14 NOP 118 @ LAL 104 NOP W

2025-04-04 NOP 108 @ LAL 124 LAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 80.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score