If NOP visited HOU today, our model would lean Houston Rockets with a 85.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +14.0 points for HOU at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.4

Net Rating

4.6

109.7

Offensive Rating

114.9

119.1

Defensive Rating

110.3

99.8

Pace

99.0

NOP (Away) HOU (Home)

Recent Form

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

Head-to-Head History

HOU wins

NOP wins

2026-03-29 NOP 134 @ HOU 102 NOP W

2026-03-13 NOP 105 @ HOU 107 HOU W

2026-01-18 NOP 110 @ HOU 119 HOU W

2025-12-18 NOP 128 @ HOU 133 HOU W

2025-03-08 NOP 117 @ HOU 146 HOU W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 85.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score