If NOP visited DEN today, our model would lean Denver Nuggets with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +13.2 points for DEN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.4

Net Rating

3.8

109.7

Offensive Rating

118.9

119.1

Defensive Rating

115.1

99.8

Pace

100.7

NOP (Away) DEN (Home)

Recent Form

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

Head-to-Head History

DEN wins

NOP wins

2026-01-13 NOP 122 @ DEN 116 NOP W

2025-11-19 NOP 125 @ DEN 118 NOP W

2025-10-29 NOP 88 @ DEN 122 DEN W

2025-02-05 NOP 119 @ DEN 144 DEN W

2025-02-03 NOP 113 @ DEN 125 DEN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score