If NOP visited DAL today, our model would lean New Orleans Pelicans with a 56.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +8.1 points for DAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.4

Net Rating

-1.3

109.7

Offensive Rating

113.7

119.1

Defensive Rating

115.0

99.8

Pace

100.2

NOP (Away) DAL (Home)

Recent Form

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

Head-to-Head History

DAL wins

NOP wins

2026-03-16 NOP 111 @ DAL 129 DAL W

2025-12-22 NOP 113 @ DAL 119 DAL W

2025-11-21 NOP 115 @ DAL 118 DAL W

2025-11-05 NOP 101 @ DAL 99 NOP W

2025-02-21 NOP 103 @ DAL 111 DAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 56.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score