If NOP visited CLE today, our model would lean Cleveland Cavaliers with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +18.6 points for CLE at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.4

Net Rating

9.2

109.7

Offensive Rating

121.0

119.1

Defensive Rating

111.8

99.8

Pace

100.3

NOP (Away) CLE (Home)

Recent Form

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

Head-to-Head History

CLE wins

NOP wins

2026-03-21 NOP 111 @ CLE 106 NOP W

2025-12-23 NOP 118 @ CLE 141 CLE W

2024-11-20 NOP 100 @ CLE 128 CLE W

2024-11-06 NOP 131 @ CLE 122 NOP W

2024-03-13 NOP 116 @ CLE 95 NOP W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score