If NOP visited CHI today, our model would lean New Orleans Pelicans with a 56.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +7.8 points for CHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.4

Net Rating

-1.6

109.7

Offensive Rating

113.2

119.1

Defensive Rating

114.8

99.8

Pace

103.6

NOP (Away) CHI (Home)

Recent Form

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

Head-to-Head History

CHI wins

NOP wins

2025-12-31 NOP 118 @ CHI 134 CHI W

2025-12-14 NOP 114 @ CHI 104 NOP W

2025-11-24 NOP 130 @ CHI 143 CHI W

2025-01-14 NOP 119 @ CHI 113 NOP W

2024-10-23 NOP 111 @ CHI 123 CHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 56.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score