If NOP visited CHA today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 82.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +0.3 points for CHA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.4

Net Rating

-9.1

109.7

Offensive Rating

106.7

119.1

Defensive Rating

115.7

99.8

Pace

98.2

NOP (Away) CHA (Home)

Recent Form

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

Head-to-Head History

CHA wins

NOP wins

2026-02-02 NOP 95 @ CHA 102 CHA W

2025-11-04 NOP 112 @ CHA 116 CHA W

2025-03-30 NOP 94 @ CHA 98 CHA W

2025-01-25 NOP 92 @ CHA 123 CHA W

2024-01-17 NOP 112 @ CHA 132 CHA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 82.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score