If NOP visited BOS today, our model would lean Boston Celtics with a 85.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +18.8 points for BOS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.4

Net Rating

9.4

109.7

Offensive Rating

119.5

119.1

Defensive Rating

110.1

99.8

Pace

96.6

NOP (Away) BOS (Home)

Recent Form

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

BOS 59-30 L3 Avg margin last 5: +0.4

L PHI

W PHI

Head-to-Head History

BOS wins

NOP wins

2026-04-10 NOP 118 @ BOS 144 BOS W

2025-10-27 NOP 122 @ BOS 90 NOP W

2025-01-31 NOP 118 @ BOS 116 NOP W

2025-01-12 NOP 119 @ BOS 120 BOS W

2024-03-30 NOP 104 @ BOS 92 NOP W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 85.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score