If MIN visited WAS today, our model would lean Minnesota Timberwolves with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -17.2 points for WAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

5.0

Net Rating

-12.2

115.7

Offensive Rating

105.8

110.8

Defensive Rating

118.0

98.0

Pace

101.8

MIN (Away) WAS (Home)

Recent Form

MIN 55-39 L2 Avg margin last 5: -19.8

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

Head-to-Head History

WAS wins

MIN wins

2026-01-04 MIN 141 @ WAS 115 MIN W

2025-11-19 MIN 109 @ WAS 120 WAS W

2025-02-01 MIN 105 @ WAS 103 MIN W

2025-01-13 MIN 120 @ WAS 106 MIN W

2024-04-09 MIN 121 @ WAS 130 WAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score