If MIN visited UTA today, our model would lean Minnesota Timberwolves with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -14.2 points for UTA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

5.0

Net Rating

-9.2

115.7

Offensive Rating

110.2

110.8

Defensive Rating

119.4

98.0

Pace

100.8

MIN (Away) UTA (Home)

Recent Form

MIN 55-39 L2 Avg margin last 5: -19.8

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

UTA wins

MIN wins

2026-03-18 MIN 111 @ UTA 147 UTA W

2026-01-20 MIN 122 @ UTA 127 UTA W

2025-11-10 MIN 120 @ UTA 113 MIN W

2025-11-07 MIN 97 @ UTA 137 UTA W

2025-04-13 MIN 105 @ UTA 116 UTA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score