If MIN visited SAS today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -7.8 points for SAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

5.0

Net Rating

-2.8

115.7

Offensive Rating

113.5

110.8

Defensive Rating

116.3

98.0

Pace

100.1

MIN (Away) SAS (Home)

Recent Form

MIN 55-39 L2 Avg margin last 5: -19.8

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

SAS wins

MIN wins

2026-05-15 MIN 139 @ SAS 109 MIN W

2026-05-12 MIN 97 @ SAS 126 SAS W

2026-05-10 MIN 109 @ SAS 114 SAS W

2026-05-08 MIN 115 @ SAS 108 MIN W

2026-05-06 MIN 95 @ SAS 133 SAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score