If MIN visited POR today, our model would lean Portland Trail Blazers with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -7.7 points for POR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

5.0

Net Rating

-2.7

115.7

Offensive Rating

111.0

110.8

Defensive Rating

113.7

98.0

Pace

99.5

MIN (Away) POR (Home)

Recent Form

MIN 55-39 L2 Avg margin last 5: -19.8

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

POR wins

MIN wins

2026-03-20 MIN 108 @ POR 104 MIN W

2026-02-24 MIN 124 @ POR 121 MIN W

2026-02-11 MIN 109 @ POR 133 POR W

2025-10-22 MIN 118 @ POR 114 MIN W

2025-02-08 MIN 98 @ POR 114 POR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score