If MIN visited PHI today, our model would lean Minnesota Timberwolves with a 57.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -11.3 points for PHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

5.0

Net Rating

-6.3

115.7

Offensive Rating

111.0

110.8

Defensive Rating

117.3

98.0

Pace

98.1

MIN (Away) PHI (Home)

Recent Form

MIN 55-39 L2 Avg margin last 5: -19.8

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

Head-to-Head History

PHI wins

MIN wins

2026-04-03 MIN 103 @ PHI 115 PHI W

2026-02-22 MIN 135 @ PHI 108 MIN W

2025-04-05 MIN 114 @ PHI 109 MIN W

2025-03-04 MIN 112 @ PHI 126 PHI W

2023-12-20 MIN 113 @ PHI 127 PHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

68.1%

All Games

1358 tracked

75.7%

High Conf.

>65% picks

76.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 57.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.7% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score