If MIN visited MIL today, our model would lean Minnesota Timberwolves with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -2.6 points for MIL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

5.0

Net Rating

2.4

115.7

Offensive Rating

115.1

110.8

Defensive Rating

112.7

98.0

Pace

99.9

MIN (Away) MIL (Home)

Recent Form

MIN 55-39 L2 Avg margin last 5: -19.8

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

Head-to-Head History

MIL wins

MIN wins

2026-01-13 MIN 139 @ MIL 106 MIN W

2025-12-21 MIN 100 @ MIL 103 MIL W

2025-04-08 MIN 103 @ MIL 110 MIL W

2025-02-12 MIN 103 @ MIL 101 MIN W

2024-02-23 MIN 112 @ MIL 107 MIN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score