If MIN visited MEM today, our model would lean Minnesota Timberwolves with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -0.3 points for MEM at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

5.0

Net Rating

4.7

115.7

Offensive Rating

117.2

110.8

Defensive Rating

112.6

98.0

Pace

103.7

MIN (Away) MEM (Home)

Recent Form

MIN 55-39 L2 Avg margin last 5: -19.8

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

MEM 25-57 L8 Avg margin last 5: -25.2

L HOU

L UTA

L DEN

L CLE

L MIL

Head-to-Head History

MEM wins

MIN wins

2026-03-03 MIN 110 @ MEM 117 MEM W

2026-02-02 MIN 128 @ MEM 137 MEM W

2026-01-31 MIN 131 @ MEM 114 MIN W

2025-12-17 MIN 116 @ MEM 110 MIN W

2025-04-10 MIN 141 @ MEM 125 MIN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score