If MIN visited ATL today, our model would lean Atlanta Hawks with a 51.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -6.1 points for ATL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

5.0

Net Rating

-1.1

115.7

Offensive Rating

113.7

110.8

Defensive Rating

114.8

98.0

Pace

103.4

MIN (Away) ATL (Home)

Recent Form

MIN 55-39 L2 Avg margin last 5: -19.8

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

Head-to-Head History

ATL wins

MIN wins

2026-02-09 MIN 116 @ ATL 138 ATL W

2025-12-31 MIN 102 @ ATL 126 ATL W

2025-01-27 MIN 92 @ ATL 100 ATL W

2024-12-23 MIN 104 @ ATL 117 ATL W

2024-04-12 MIN 106 @ ATL 109 ATL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 51.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score