If MIL visited WAS today, our model would lean Milwaukee Bucks with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -14.6 points for WAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.4

Net Rating

-12.2

115.1

Offensive Rating

105.8

112.7

Defensive Rating

118.0

99.9

Pace

101.8

MIL (Away) WAS (Home)

Recent Form

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

Head-to-Head History

WAS wins

MIL wins

2026-01-29 MIL 99 @ WAS 109 WAS W

2025-12-31 MIL 114 @ WAS 113 MIL W

2025-12-01 MIL 126 @ WAS 129 WAS W

2025-10-22 MIL 120 @ WAS 133 WAS W

2025-02-21 MIL 104 @ WAS 101 MIL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score