If MIL visited TOR today, our model would lean Toronto Raptors with a 67.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -6.5 points for TOR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.4

Net Rating

-4.1

115.1

Offensive Rating

109.6

112.7

Defensive Rating

113.6

99.9

Pace

100.6

MIL (Away) TOR (Home)

Recent Form

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

Head-to-Head History

TOR wins

MIL wins

2026-02-22 MIL 122 @ TOR 94 MIL W

2025-12-18 MIL 111 @ TOR 105 MIL W

2025-11-04 MIL 100 @ TOR 128 TOR W

2025-10-24 MIL 122 @ TOR 116 MIL W

2025-01-17 MIL 112 @ TOR 130 TOR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 67.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score