If MIL visited SAS today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -5.2 points for SAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.4

Net Rating

-2.8

115.1

Offensive Rating

113.5

112.7

Defensive Rating

116.3

99.9

Pace

100.1

MIL (Away) SAS (Home)

Recent Form

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

SAS wins

MIL wins

2026-03-28 MIL 127 @ SAS 95 MIL W

2026-01-15 MIL 101 @ SAS 119 SAS W

2025-01-31 MIL 118 @ SAS 144 SAS W

2025-01-08 MIL 105 @ SAS 121 SAS W

2024-01-04 MIL 125 @ SAS 121 MIL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score