If MIL visited POR today, our model would lean Portland Trail Blazers with a 51.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -5.1 points for POR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.4

Net Rating

-2.7

115.1

Offensive Rating

111.0

112.7

Defensive Rating

113.7

99.9

Pace

99.5

MIL (Away) POR (Home)

Recent Form

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

POR wins

MIL wins

2026-03-25 MIL 99 @ POR 130 POR W

2025-11-24 MIL 115 @ POR 103 MIL W

2025-01-28 MIL 112 @ POR 125 POR W

2025-01-04 MIL 105 @ POR 102 MIL W

2024-01-31 MIL 116 @ POR 119 POR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 51.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score