If MIL visited NOP today, our model would lean New Orleans Pelicans with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -11.8 points for NOP at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.4

Net Rating

-9.4

115.1

Offensive Rating

109.7

112.7

Defensive Rating

119.1

99.9

Pace

99.8

MIL (Away) NOP (Home)

Recent Form

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

Head-to-Head History

NOP wins

MIL wins

2026-02-20 MIL 139 @ NOP 118 MIL W

2026-02-04 MIL 137 @ NOP 141 NOP W

2025-04-10 MIL 111 @ NOP 136 NOP W

2025-04-06 MIL 111 @ NOP 107 MIL W

2024-03-28 MIL 100 @ NOP 107 NOP W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score