If MIL visited DET today, our model would lean Detroit Pistons with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -0.3 points for DET at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.4

Net Rating

2.1

115.1

Offensive Rating

114.6

112.7

Defensive Rating

112.5

99.9

Pace

100.3

MIL (Away) DET (Home)

Recent Form

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

DET 67-29 L1 Avg margin last 5: -6.0

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

Head-to-Head History

DET wins

MIL wins

2026-04-08 MIL 111 @ DET 137 DET W

2025-12-06 MIL 112 @ DET 124 DET W

2025-12-03 MIL 109 @ DET 113 DET W

2025-11-22 MIL 129 @ DET 116 MIL W

2025-04-13 MIL 133 @ DET 140 DET W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score