If MIL visited CLE today, our model would lean Cleveland Cavaliers with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +6.8 points for CLE at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.4

Net Rating

9.2

115.1

Offensive Rating

121.0

112.7

Defensive Rating

111.8

99.9

Pace

100.3

MIL (Away) CLE (Home)

Recent Form

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

Head-to-Head History

CLE wins

MIL wins

2026-03-17 MIL 123 @ CLE 116 MIL W

2026-02-25 MIL 116 @ CLE 118 CLE W

2025-11-17 MIL 106 @ CLE 118 CLE W

2025-10-26 MIL 113 @ CLE 118 CLE W

2025-03-09 MIL 112 @ CLE 100 MIL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score