If MIL visited CHI today, our model would lean Chicago Bulls with a 51.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -4.0 points for CHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.4

Net Rating

-1.6

115.1

Offensive Rating

113.2

112.7

Defensive Rating

114.8

99.9

Pace

103.6

MIL (Away) CHI (Home)

Recent Form

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

Head-to-Head History

CHI wins

MIL wins

2026-03-01 MIL 97 @ CHI 120 CHI W

2026-02-03 MIL 115 @ CHI 131 CHI W

2025-12-27 MIL 112 @ CHI 103 MIL W

2025-11-07 MIL 110 @ CHI 126 CHI W

2024-12-28 MIL 111 @ CHI 116 CHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 51.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score