If MIL visited CHA today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -11.5 points for CHA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.4

Net Rating

-9.1

115.1

Offensive Rating

106.7

112.7

Defensive Rating

115.7

99.9

Pace

98.2

MIL (Away) CHA (Home)

Recent Form

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

Head-to-Head History

CHA wins

MIL wins

2026-01-02 MIL 121 @ CHA 122 CHA W

2025-12-29 MIL 123 @ CHA 113 MIL W

2025-11-14 MIL 134 @ CHA 147 CHA W

2025-11-12 MIL 100 @ CHA 111 CHA W

2025-02-05 MIL 112 @ CHA 102 MIL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score