If MIL visited BOS today, our model would lean Boston Celtics with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +7.0 points for BOS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.4

Net Rating

9.4

115.1

Offensive Rating

119.5

112.7

Defensive Rating

110.1

99.9

Pace

96.6

MIL (Away) BOS (Home)

Recent Form

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

BOS 59-30 L3 Avg margin last 5: +0.4

L PHI

W PHI

Head-to-Head History

BOS wins

MIL wins

2026-04-03 MIL 133 @ BOS 101 MIL W

2026-03-02 MIL 108 @ BOS 81 MIL W

2026-02-01 MIL 79 @ BOS 107 BOS W

2025-12-11 MIL 101 @ BOS 116 BOS W

2024-12-06 MIL 105 @ BOS 111 BOS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score