If MEM visited TOR today, our model would lean Toronto Raptors with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -8.8 points for TOR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.7

Net Rating

-4.1

117.2

Offensive Rating

109.6

112.6

Defensive Rating

113.6

103.7

Pace

100.6

MEM (Away) TOR (Home)

Recent Form

MEM 25-57 L8 Avg margin last 5: -25.2

L HOU

L UTA

L DEN

L CLE

L MIL

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

Head-to-Head History

TOR wins

MEM wins

2026-04-03 MEM 128 @ TOR 96 MEM W

2025-11-02 MEM 104 @ TOR 117 TOR W

2025-02-05 MEM 138 @ TOR 107 MEM W

2024-12-26 MEM 126 @ TOR 155 TOR W

2024-01-22 MEM 108 @ TOR 100 MEM W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score