If MEM visited POR today, our model would lean Portland Trail Blazers with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -7.4 points for POR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.7

Net Rating

-2.7

117.2

Offensive Rating

111.0

112.6

Defensive Rating

113.7

103.7

Pace

99.5

MEM (Away) POR (Home)

Recent Form

MEM 25-57 L8 Avg margin last 5: -25.2

L HOU

L UTA

L DEN

L CLE

L MIL

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

POR wins

MEM wins

2026-03-04 MEM 122 @ POR 114 MEM W

2026-02-07 MEM 115 @ POR 122 POR W

2026-02-06 MEM 115 @ POR 135 POR W

2025-12-07 MEM 96 @ POR 119 POR W

2025-03-19 MEM 99 @ POR 115 POR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score