If MEM visited PHX today, our model would lean Phoenix Suns with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -7.7 points for PHX at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.7

Net Rating

-3.0

117.2

Offensive Rating

114.7

112.6

Defensive Rating

117.7

103.7

Pace

98.3

MEM (Away) PHX (Home)

Recent Form

MEM 25-57 L8 Avg margin last 5: -25.2

L HOU

L UTA

L DEN

L CLE

L MIL

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

PHX wins

MEM wins

2026-03-30 MEM 131 @ PHX 105 MEM W

2026-01-07 MEM 117 @ PHX 98 MEM W

2025-10-29 MEM 114 @ PHX 113 MEM W

2025-03-10 MEM 118 @ PHX 120 PHX W

2025-02-25 MEM 148 @ PHX 151 PHX W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score