If MEM visited PHI today, our model would lean Philadelphia 76ers with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -11.0 points for PHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.7

Net Rating

-6.3

117.2

Offensive Rating

111.0

112.6

Defensive Rating

117.3

103.7

Pace

98.1

MEM (Away) PHI (Home)

Recent Form

MEM 25-57 L8 Avg margin last 5: -25.2

L HOU

L UTA

L DEN

L CLE

L MIL

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

Head-to-Head History

PHI wins

MEM wins

2026-03-10 MEM 129 @ PHI 139 PHI W

2025-12-30 MEM 139 @ PHI 136 MEM W

2024-11-20 MEM 111 @ PHI 117 PHI W

2024-11-02 MEM 124 @ PHI 107 MEM W

2024-04-06 MEM 116 @ PHI 96 MEM W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score