If MEM visited ORL today, our model would lean Orlando Magic with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -4.9 points for ORL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.7

Net Rating

-0.2

117.2

Offensive Rating

108.9

112.6

Defensive Rating

109.1

103.7

Pace

96.5

MEM (Away) ORL (Home)

Recent Form

MEM 25-57 L8 Avg margin last 5: -25.2

L HOU

L UTA

L DEN

L CLE

L MIL

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

Head-to-Head History

ORL wins

MEM wins

2026-01-18 MEM 109 @ ORL 126 ORL W

2026-01-15 MEM 118 @ ORL 111 MEM W

2025-02-21 MEM 105 @ ORL 104 MEM W

2024-10-26 MEM 111 @ ORL 124 ORL W

2024-03-30 MEM 88 @ ORL 118 ORL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score