If MEM visited NOP today, our model would lean New Orleans Pelicans with a 63.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -14.1 points for NOP at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.7

Net Rating

-9.4

117.2

Offensive Rating

109.7

112.6

Defensive Rating

119.1

103.7

Pace

99.8

MEM (Away) NOP (Home)

Recent Form

MEM 25-57 L8 Avg margin last 5: -25.2

L HOU

L UTA

L DEN

L CLE

L MIL

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

Head-to-Head History

NOP wins

MEM wins

2026-01-30 MEM 106 @ NOP 114 NOP W

2026-01-23 MEM 133 @ NOP 127 MEM W

2025-11-26 MEM 133 @ NOP 128 MEM W

2025-10-22 MEM 122 @ NOP 128 NOP W

2025-03-09 MEM 107 @ NOP 104 MEM W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score