If MEM visited MIL today, our model would lean Milwaukee Bucks with a 80.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -2.3 points for MIL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.7

Net Rating

2.4

117.2

Offensive Rating

115.1

112.6

Defensive Rating

112.7

103.7

Pace

99.9

MEM (Away) MIL (Home)

Recent Form

MEM 25-57 L8 Avg margin last 5: -25.2

L HOU

L UTA

L DEN

L CLE

L MIL

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

Head-to-Head History

MIL wins

MEM wins

2026-04-05 MEM 115 @ MIL 131 MIL W

2025-12-26 MEM 104 @ MIL 125 MIL W

2025-02-02 MEM 132 @ MIL 119 MEM W

2024-10-31 MEM 99 @ MIL 122 MIL W

2024-04-03 MEM 111 @ MIL 101 MEM W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 80.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score