If MEM visited DAL today, our model would lean Dallas Mavericks with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -6.0 points for DAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.7

Net Rating

-1.3

117.2

Offensive Rating

113.7

112.6

Defensive Rating

115.0

103.7

Pace

100.2

MEM (Away) DAL (Home)

Recent Form

MEM 25-57 L8 Avg margin last 5: -25.2

L HOU

L UTA

L DEN

L CLE

L MIL

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

Head-to-Head History

DAL wins

MEM wins

2026-03-12 MEM 120 @ DAL 112 MEM W

2026-02-27 MEM 124 @ DAL 105 MEM W

2025-11-22 MEM 102 @ DAL 96 MEM W

2025-11-07 MEM 104 @ DAL 118 DAL W

2025-04-13 MEM 97 @ DAL 132 DAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score