If MEM visited CLE today, our model would lean Cleveland Cavaliers with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +4.5 points for CLE at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.7

Net Rating

9.2

117.2

Offensive Rating

121.0

112.6

Defensive Rating

111.8

103.7

Pace

100.3

MEM (Away) CLE (Home)

Recent Form

MEM 25-57 L8 Avg margin last 5: -25.2

L HOU

L UTA

L DEN

L CLE

L MIL

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

Head-to-Head History

CLE wins

MEM wins

2026-04-06 MEM 142 @ CLE 126 MEM W

2025-11-15 MEM 100 @ CLE 108 CLE W

2025-03-14 MEM 133 @ CLE 124 MEM W

2025-02-23 MEM 123 @ CLE 129 CLE W

2024-04-10 MEM 98 @ CLE 110 CLE W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score