If MEM visited CHI today, our model would lean Chicago Bulls with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -6.3 points for CHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.7

Net Rating

-1.6

117.2

Offensive Rating

113.2

112.6

Defensive Rating

114.8

103.7

Pace

103.6

MEM (Away) CHI (Home)

Recent Form

MEM 25-57 L8 Avg margin last 5: -25.2

L HOU

L UTA

L DEN

L CLE

L MIL

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

Head-to-Head History

CHI wins

MEM wins

2026-03-28 MEM 124 @ CHI 125 CHI W

2026-03-16 MEM 107 @ CHI 132 CHI W

2024-11-23 MEM 142 @ CHI 131 MEM W

2024-10-28 MEM 126 @ CHI 123 MEM W

2024-02-08 MEM 118 @ CHI 110 MEM W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score