If MEM visited ATL today, our model would lean Atlanta Hawks with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -5.8 points for ATL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.7

Net Rating

-1.1

117.2

Offensive Rating

113.7

112.6

Defensive Rating

114.8

103.7

Pace

103.4

MEM (Away) ATL (Home)

Recent Form

MEM 25-57 L8 Avg margin last 5: -25.2

L HOU

L UTA

L DEN

L CLE

L MIL

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

Head-to-Head History

ATL wins

MEM wins

2026-03-23 MEM 107 @ ATL 146 ATL W

2026-01-21 MEM 124 @ ATL 122 MEM W

2025-03-03 MEM 132 @ ATL 130 MEM W

2024-12-21 MEM 128 @ ATL 112 MEM W

2024-03-08 MEM 99 @ ATL 92 MEM W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score