If LAL visited TOR today, our model would lean Los Angeles Lakers with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -5.3 points for TOR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

1.2

Net Rating

-4.1

115.0

Offensive Rating

109.6

113.8

Defensive Rating

113.6

98.3

Pace

100.6

LAL (Away) TOR (Home)

Recent Form

LAL 57-35 L4 Avg margin last 5: -8.8

L OKC

W HOU

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

Head-to-Head History

TOR wins

LAL wins

2026-01-18 LAL 93 @ TOR 110 TOR W

2025-12-04 LAL 123 @ TOR 120 LAL W

2024-11-10 LAL 103 @ TOR 123 TOR W

2024-11-01 LAL 131 @ TOR 125 LAL W

2024-04-02 LAL 128 @ TOR 111 LAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score