If LAL visited PHX today, our model would lean Los Angeles Lakers with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -4.2 points for PHX at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

1.2

Net Rating

-3.0

115.0

Offensive Rating

114.7

113.8

Defensive Rating

117.7

98.3

Pace

98.3

LAL (Away) PHX (Home)

Recent Form

LAL 57-35 L4 Avg margin last 5: -8.8

L OKC

W HOU

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

PHX wins

LAL wins

2026-04-10 LAL 73 @ PHX 101 PHX W

2026-02-26 LAL 110 @ PHX 113 PHX W

2025-12-23 LAL 108 @ PHX 132 PHX W

2025-12-14 LAL 116 @ PHX 114 LAL W

2025-12-01 LAL 125 @ PHX 108 LAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score